Los Angeles, Calif.

The Markup and Gizmodo have obtained and analyzed actual predictions for more than three dozen departments that used PredPol predictive policing software for at least six months between 2018 and 2020. This data sheet provides the findings from our disparate impact analysis and public housing analysis for Los Angeles, Calif. To learn more about the project read, our investigation. For more details on how we did this analysis, read our methodology.

Findings

Overview

  • Predpol’s algorithm relentlessly targeted the block groups in each jurisdiction that were most heavily populated by people of color and the poor, particularly those containing public housing. The algorithm spared block groups with more White residents the same level of scrutiny.

  • The proportion of each jurisdiction’s Black and Latino residents was higher in the most-targeted block groups and lower in the least-targeted block groups compared to the jurisdiction overall. The opposite was true for the White population: The least-targeted block groups contained a higher proportion of White residents, and the most-targeted block groups contained a lower proportion.

  • For the majority of jurisdictions in our data set (27 jurisdictions), a higher proportion of their low-income households lived in the block groups that were targeted the most. In some jurisdictions, all of their subsidized and public housing was located in block groups PredPol targeted more than the median.

  • These vast disparities were caused by the algorithm relentlessly predicting crime in the block groups in each jurisdiction that contained a higher proportion of the low-income residents and Black and Latino residents. They were the subject of crime predictions every shift, every day, and in multiple locations in the same block group.

  • We also analyzed arrest statistics by race from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Project for 29 of the agencies in our data that were in UCR. In 90 percent of them, per capita arrests were higher for Black people than White people—or any other racial group included in the dataset, mirroring the characteristics of the neighborhoods that the algorithm targeted.

  • We analyzed arrest data provided by 10 law enforcement agencies in our data and the rates of arrest in predicted areas remained the same whether PredPol predicted a crime that day or not.

Race and Ethnicity

Compared to Los Angeles, Calif., overall, the most-targeted block groups had:

  • A greater proportion of Asians residents.
  • A greater proportion of Black residents.
  • A greater proportion of Latino residents.
  • A smaller proportion of White residents.

Compared to Los Angeles, Calif. overall, the least-targeted block groups had:

  • A smaller proportion of Asian residents.
  • A smaller proportion of Black residents.
  • A smaller proportion of Latino residents.
  • A greater proportion of White residents.

Targeting Level Demographic Proportion of Block Group pop.
Most Targeted Block Groups Asian 9.1
Most Targeted Block Groups Black 6.0
Most Targeted Block Groups Latino 43.7
Most Targeted Block Groups White 21.4
Median Targeted Block Groups Asian 5.2
Median Targeted Block Groups Black 4.1
Median Targeted Block Groups Latino 46.4
Median Targeted Block Groups White 22.6
Least Targeted Block Groups Asian 6.4
Least Targeted Block Groups Black 4.2
Least Targeted Block Groups Latino 36.0
Least Targeted Block Groups White 28.6
Jurisdiction Total Asian 7.3
Jurisdiction Total Black 4.5
Jurisdiction Total Latino 40.9
Jurisdiction Total White 25.1

Household Income

Compared to Los Angeles, Calif. overall, the most-targeted block groups had:

  • A greater proportion of households that made less than $45K a year.
  • A greater proportion of households that made between between $75K and 100k a year.
  • A greater proportion of households that made between $120k and 150K a year.
  • A smaller proportion of households that made $200K and above a year.

Compared to the Los Angeles, Calif. overall, the least-targeted block groups had:

  • A smaller proportion of households that made less than $45K a year.
  • A smaller proportion of households that made between $75K and 100K a year.
  • A greater proportion of households that made between $120K and 150K a year.
  • A greater proportion of households that made $200K and above a year.

Targeting Level Demographic Proportion of Block Group pop.
Most Targeted Block Groups $120k - 150k 1.5
Most Targeted Block Groups $75k - 100k 5.0
Most Targeted Block Groups $200k and above 4.2
Most Targeted Block Groups Less than 45k 33.2
Median Targeted Block Groups $120k - 150k 1.1
Median Targeted Block Groups $75k - 100k 4.3
Median Targeted Block Groups $200k and above 2.9
Median Targeted Block Groups Less than 45k 30.3
Least Targeted Block Groups $120k - 150k 1.3
Least Targeted Block Groups $75k - 100k 3.3
Least Targeted Block Groups $200k and above 5.7
Least Targeted Block Groups Less than 45k 22.6
Jurisdiction Total $120k - 150k 1.3
Jurisdiction Total $75k - 100k 4.3
Jurisdiction Total $200k and above 4.8
Jurisdiction Total Less than 45k 29.2

Public Housing

In Los Angeles, Calif. 10 percent of public housing was on block groups the software targeted the most, 67 percent of public housing was on block groups the software targeted more than the median.

The table below provides how many predictions each block with public housing received. The final column tells us the percentage of days a block received predictions from PredPol’s software between Feb 15, 2018 and Apr 15, 2020. We confirmed these dates with the Los Angeles, Calif., police department.

Census GEOID Block Predictions Num. Public Housing Units Pct. days w/ Predictions
060372426002 2003 1162 19 88.0616175
060372317202 2014 1187 1 85.1091142
060371114003 3001 1193 2 84.7240051
060371193411 1004 1008 2 81.3863928
060371212221 1000 940 1 80.8729140
060371173024 4008 943 1 79.7175866
060371905101 1004 1114 1 79.3324775
060371193101 1000 1004 2 77.6636714
060371907001 1000 918 2 75.7381258
060372741001 1012 748 1 74.5827985
060372089032 2003 863 1 74.0693196
060371201052 2003 619 1 72.6572529
060371152013 3004 765 2 70.6033376
060371172011 1004 761 1 69.0629012
060372933071 1002 686 1 68.8061617
060372044201 1001 650 1 67.5224647
060372427003 3007 699 2 66.4955071
060372319002 2016 517 1 66.1103979
060372013011 1010 615 1 65.8536585
060372373003 3008 668 1 65.8536585
060371351142 2005 654 1 65.4685494
060372397011 1004 535 1 62.9011553
060372327001 1004 580 1 62.7727856
060371061141 1007 780 3 62.1309371
060372073012 2007 713 1 60.7188703
060371271041 1007 571 1 59.3068036
060372734022 2004 663 1 59.0500642
060372420001 1003 598 1 58.6649551
060372084012 2009 562 1 56.9961489
060372111202 2013 611 1 56.7394095
060372396011 1000 597 1 55.8408216
060371286011 1000 543 2 54.9422336
060371193201 1009 507 1 54.8138639
060372124201 1000 436 1 54.5571245
060372121022 2002 485 2 54.3003851
060371113022 2014 473 1 54.0436457
060371283022 2000 447 1 52.8883184
060372312202 2011 498 1 52.2464698
060372124102 2002 537 1 51.0911425
060372426002 2002 505 12 50.5776637
060372699071 1009 416 1 50.4492940
060372088011 1002 564 1 50.1925546
060371061131 1007 391 1 49.9358151
060372421001 1001 490 33 49.6790757
060371064081 1000 515 1 47.8818999
060371253201 1015 471 1 47.4967908
060372111221 1006 396 1 47.1116816
060372060501 1077 437 2 46.9833119
060372077101 1042 417 2 45.5712452
060372371022 2005 418 1 45.5712452
060371871022 2027 439 3 43.1322208
060372376004 4005 363 1 42.7471117
060371323001 1000 376 3 42.3620026
060372100103 3003 353 3 41.7201540
060372377202 2003 379 1 41.3350449
060371944022 2001 331 1 39.4094994
060371043202 2000 304 1 39.0243902
060371224102 2000 333 1 37.7406932
060371041052 2001 303 2 37.3555841
060371349041 1000 362 2 36.8421053
060371275201 1000 322 2 36.5853659
060372042002 2010 301 2 34.9165597
060372325003 3000 281 1 34.7881900
060371193421 1000 280 1 34.5314506
060371204001 1000 328 1 34.4030809
060372422004 4005 280 3 34.1463415
060372060323 3018 274 1 34.0179718
060372073022 2005 325 1 33.7612323
060372375002 2005 263 1 33.6328626
060371011102 2008 262 1 33.6328626
060372094011 1004 262 1 32.9910141
060371341031 1000 331 1 32.2207959
060372079001 1001 286 1 31.9640565
060372426003 3001 263 4 31.8356868
060372376002 2006 290 1 31.7073171
060371042041 1001 275 2 31.3222080
060372403003 3003 274 1 30.8087291
060371134212 2013 271 1 30.6803594
060372396022 2006 239 3 30.5519897
060372087201 1000 261 2 30.1668806
060372062002 2005 275 2 29.9101412
060372963002 2007 242 1 29.7817715
060372073021 1001 282 1 29.7817715
060371064072 2001 272 1 29.5250321
060372214012 2006 231 1 28.4980745
060372317201 1001 248 2 28.2413350
060371047031 1000 235 1 27.9845956
060372060501 1002 236 1 27.8562259
060372755001 1006 240 2 27.8562259
060371232032 2003 216 1 27.5994865
060371047041 1004 243 1 27.3427471
060371219001 1005 236 1 27.3427471
060371152012 2007 249 1 27.2143774
060371201082 2001 256 1 26.9576380
060371278031 1001 228 2 26.8292683
060372321202 2002 205 1 26.1874198
060372396012 2004 243 1 25.8023107
060372094012 2001 209 2 25.5455712
060372240101 1014 199 1 25.4172015
060371201071 1002 203 1 25.4172015
060372327001 1003 244 1 25.2888318
060372062002 2001 205 1 25.2888318
060372421001 1005 198 15 25.2888318
060372421001 1004 211 11 24.7753530
060372091022 2008 199 2 23.8767651
060372316001 1007 215 1 23.8767651
060372189002 2000 233 1 23.3632863
060371041083 3000 189 1 23.2349166
060372134023 3001 204 1 23.1065469
060372431003 3005 180 15 22.9781772
060372240101 1007 241 2 22.5930680
060372117042 2002 179 1 22.4646983
060372317103 3004 190 1 22.4646983
060372094012 2002 174 2 22.2079589
060371927002 2012 187 1 22.2079589
060372111202 2010 203 1 21.9512195
060372352022 2003 185 1 21.9512195
060372089032 2002 202 2 21.6944801
060372403003 3015 176 2 21.6944801
060372133201 1002 180 1 21.5661104
060371941011 1016 168 1 21.5661104
060371151011 1019 195 1 21.4377407
060371132341 1005 167 1 21.3093710
060371905101 1001 189 1 21.1810013
060372362021 1002 172 1 20.7958922
060372377101 1000 170 1 20.6675225
060371910002 2002 164 1 20.5391528
060372289002 2008 162 8 20.5391528
060371343061 1001 186 1 20.5391528
060371224101 1000 168 1 20.0256739
060371172021 1000 178 2 19.7689345
060371905101 1003 166 2 19.6405648
060372121021 1002 195 2 19.6405648
060372911102 2003 155 1 18.7419769
060371958031 1003 158 1 18.7419769
060372426002 2000 154 26 18.6136072
060372410011 1006 166 2 18.6136072
060372060312 2016 184 1 18.3568678
060372088021 1001 141 1 18.1001284
060372071032 2016 157 1 17.9717587
060372754002 2003 162 1 17.8433890
060372087202 2000 150 1 17.4582798
060372742021 1000 136 2 17.3299101
060371279102 2003 131 1 16.8164313
060372073012 2013 146 2 16.6880616
060371413041 1000 130 1 16.5596919
060372129002 2001 141 1 16.5596919
060372362031 1007 148 1 16.3029525
060372371015 5001 136 2 16.1745828
060371908012 2003 134 1 16.1745828
060372362022 2000 131 1 16.0462131
060371909013 3008 124 1 15.9178434
060371272202 2008 125 3 15.7894737
060372038003 3003 128 1 15.4043646
060371153012 2011 120 1 15.2759949
060372219001 1002 124 2 15.2759949
060372092001 1030 124 1 15.1476252
060371204004 4006 131 1 15.1476252
060371905202 2002 136 1 15.0192555
060372187021 1004 116 1 14.8908858
060372125022 2001 116 1 14.7625160
060372319001 1004 116 2 14.6341463
060372086101 1006 112 1 14.3774069
060372083023 3004 118 2 14.2490372
060371253202 2003 121 1 14.2490372
060372911102 2023 135 2 14.1206675
060371325011 1002 173 1 14.1206675
060371911202 2010 118 1 14.1206675
060372962103 3000 109 2 13.9922978
060372014012 2003 111 1 13.9922978
060372079002 2002 110 3 13.7355584
060372201002 2006 106 1 13.6071887
060372287102 2002 105 1 13.4788190
060372420001 1006 105 1 13.4788190
060372092001 1005 112 2 12.9653402
060371905201 1001 123 1 12.9653402
060371917202 2002 125 1 12.7086008
060372426001 1001 99 10 12.5802311
060372151022 2003 98 1 12.3234917
060372123031 1002 122 1 12.3234917
060371175301 1000 96 1 12.3234917
060372087202 2002 100 2 12.1951220
060372699031 1007 93 1 11.9383825
060372084011 1004 91 1 11.6816431
060371957101 1002 101 1 11.5532734
060372088012 2000 90 1 11.5532734
060372093001 1007 101 2 11.4249037
060371905202 2001 87 1 11.1681643
060371272103 3008 92 3 11.1681643
060371174051 1002 92 2 11.1681643
060372094012 2003 97 4 11.0397946
060372293003 3004 89 1 11.0397946
060371905101 1002 85 2 10.9114249
060372089031 1000 94 4 10.9114249
060372073012 2012 96 2 10.7830552
060372091031 1001 91 1 10.7830552
060372218101 1000 97 3 10.7830552
060371907002 2006 83 1 10.6546855
060372089021 1003 83 1 10.6546855
060371238002 2004 85 1 10.1412067
060372117041 1002 82 2 10.0128370
060372080001 1018 77 3 9.8844673
060371910003 3003 86 1 9.7560976
060372085011 1003 80 1 9.6277279
060372422003 3006 76 1 9.4993582
060372187022 2003 82 1 9.3709884
060371910002 2003 74 1 9.3709884
060372226002 2000 73 1 9.3709884
060372349012 2001 75 1 9.2426187
060371172011 1005 71 1 9.1142490
060371134011 1003 78 1 8.9858793
060371174042 2000 77 1 8.9858793
060372062002 2000 70 2 8.9858793
060372971102 2003 68 1 8.7291399
060372046001 1000 76 2 8.7291399
060372349021 1002 68 2 8.7291399
060372122032 2001 70 1 8.6007702
060372091041 1001 70 1 8.3440308
060372122041 1002 65 1 8.3440308
060371276041 1004 65 1 8.2156611
060372402003 3005 66 1 8.0872914
060372431002 2005 63 12 8.0872914
060372402002 2001 61 2 7.8305520
060371064051 1000 68 1 7.8305520
060372133202 2001 62 1 7.7021823
060371201081 1000 61 2 7.7021823
060371957201 1002 67 1 7.5738126
060372117013 3005 58 1 7.4454429
060372123031 1004 61 2 7.4454429
060372383102 2006 58 3 7.4454429
060372213041 1000 58 1 7.4454429
060371172011 1001 58 3 7.3170732
060372133201 1007 55 3 7.0603338
060371114003 3000 59 1 7.0603338
060372036001 1006 55 1 7.0603338
060371064033 3000 55 1 7.0603338
060372094032 2000 58 1 7.0603338
060372240101 1001 54 1 6.9319641
060371239011 1000 54 2 6.9319641
060372062002 2008 56 2 6.8035944
060372340001 1000 53 1 6.8035944
060372414002 2018 53 1 6.8035944
060372123041 1000 54 1 6.6752246
060371043202 2008 51 2 6.5468549
060371314002 2002 56 1 6.5468549
060371918102 2001 51 1 6.5468549
060372218202 2002 53 1 6.5468549
060372362022 2001 50 2 6.4184852
060371915002 2003 50 1 6.4184852
060372293002 2005 50 1 6.4184852
060372091021 1000 59 1 6.4184852
060372060501 1046 58 1 6.2901155
060372049101 1002 49 3 6.2901155
060372286001 1000 50 2 6.2901155
060371210102 2002 50 1 6.2901155
060372187021 1003 49 1 6.2901155
060372083023 3009 55 2 6.1617458
060371021071 1007 53 1 6.1617458
060372431002 2000 47 22 6.0333761
060371907001 1006 49 1 5.9050064
060371316001 1012 55 1 5.9050064
060372085023 3002 45 1 5.7766367
060371200301 1005 46 1 5.7766367
060372084011 1000 44 1 5.6482670
060372247001 1002 44 1 5.6482670
060372755004 4001 44 40 5.6482670
060372094021 1000 53 1 5.6482670
060372134023 3002 43 2 5.5198973
060372752003 3001 45 2 5.5198973
060372240101 1005 43 1 5.3915276
060371200301 1000 42 3 5.3915276
060371242032 2003 43 2 5.3915276
060372088022 2002 41 1 5.2631579
060372088022 2004 47 1 5.2631579
060371904011 1001 45 1 5.2631579
060371235101 1005 41 1 5.2631579
060372361004 4002 48 1 5.2631579
060372413002 2006 42 1 5.2631579
060371902021 1000 42 2 5.2631579
060372060322 2001 44 1 5.2631579
060372113202 2000 41 1 5.2631579
060372264102 2007 44 1 5.1347882
060372060101 1035 40 1 5.1347882
060372289002 2005 40 2 5.1347882
060372213021 1003 40 1 5.1347882
060371413021 1018 39 1 5.0064185
060372164012 2000 39 1 5.0064185
060372094031 1001 41 2 5.0064185
060371851002 2021 47 1 5.0064185
060372243201 1007 42 1 5.0064185
060371976002 2001 42 1 5.0064185
060372073022 2002 41 1 4.8780488
060371174042 2003 40 2 4.8780488
060371838201 1002 38 2 4.8780488
060372170012 2000 37 1 4.7496791
060372372024 4017 37 1 4.7496791
060372244101 1013 37 1 4.7496791
060372756021 1005 38 1 4.6213094
060371113013 3006 36 1 4.6213094
060371411022 2001 36 1 4.6213094
060371233043 3003 36 2 4.6213094
060372033001 1018 36 1 4.4929397
060372071021 1005 35 1 4.4929397
060372086203 3000 35 1 4.4929397
060372163002 2001 38 1 4.4929397
060372242002 2000 36 1 4.3645700
060372375001 1005 36 2 4.3645700
060372093001 1003 36 1 4.3645700
060372091041 1000 33 3 4.2362003
060372095201 1006 33 1 4.2362003
060372406001 1004 33 1 4.2362003
060372427004 4000 37 1 4.2362003
060372244201 1002 33 2 4.2362003
060371047012 2002 33 24 4.2362003
060372051201 1017 34 3 4.1078306
060372088021 1005 38 1 4.1078306
060371955004 4007 32 1 4.1078306
060371991201 1004 33 3 3.9794608
060372312201 1000 30 1 3.8510911
060372094011 1000 34 1 3.8510911
060372093001 1006 31 1 3.8510911
060372088011 1001 29 1 3.7227214
060372126101 1005 30 1 3.7227214
060372423001 1006 29 1 3.7227214
060371432003 3005 29 1 3.7227214
060371345201 1012 30 1 3.5943517
060372083011 1004 30 1 3.5943517
060371990001 1006 27 1 3.4659820
060372407001 1003 27 3 3.4659820
060371913012 2005 29 1 3.4659820
060371221201 1000 36 2 3.4659820
060372091031 1000 26 1 3.3376123
060372421001 1003 26 25 3.3376123
060372123061 1001 26 1 3.2092426
060372319002 2014 25 1 3.2092426
060372043001 1000 25 2 3.2092426
060371327004 4002 24 1 3.0808729
060372420002 2002 24 4 3.0808729
060372221002 2004 24 1 3.0808729
060372226001 1000 24 2 3.0808729
060372294201 1006 24 1 3.0808729
060372094032 2001 25 1 3.0808729
060372085021 1000 26 1 3.0808729
060371066482 2002 25 1 3.0808729
060371899052 2000 23 1 2.9525032
060372321201 1003 23 1 2.9525032
060371957102 2005 25 1 2.9525032
060372117011 1001 23 2 2.9525032
060372060311 1035 22 1 2.8241335
060372083023 3002 22 1 2.8241335
060372170021 1003 22 1 2.8241335
060371070101 1015 22 1 2.8241335
060372217102 2007 25 1 2.8241335
060372404022 2009 22 1 2.8241335
060372226001 1003 22 1 2.8241335
060371904012 2000 22 1 2.8241335
060371908012 2006 21 1 2.6957638
060371413023 3000 21 1 2.6957638
060372131001 1009 21 1 2.6957638
060372212202 2001 22 1 2.6957638
060371064052 2000 21 2 2.6957638
060372427005 5004 23 1 2.6957638
060372051201 1008 20 1 2.5673941
060371905101 1000 22 4 2.5673941
060371211023 3005 20 1 2.5673941
060372426003 3003 20 4 2.5673941
060372094011 1005 20 1 2.5673941
060372323001 1003 20 1 2.5673941
060371316001 1007 23 1 2.5673941
060371318002 2014 20 1 2.5673941
060372215001 1003 20 2 2.5673941
060372063001 1017 20 1 2.5673941
060372073021 1000 19 1 2.4390244
060372092001 1014 20 1 2.4390244
060371041082 2000 22 1 2.4390244
060372013011 1004 19 1 2.4390244
060371892011 1000 19 1 2.4390244
060371272101 1003 19 1 2.4390244
060372678003 3017 18 1 2.3106547
060372044201 1003 19 1 2.3106547
060372426001 1004 22 11 2.3106547
060372220012 2005 20 1 2.3106547
060372080002 2002 18 1 2.3106547
060371048211 1000 20 2 2.3106547
060371221211 1000 17 1 2.1822850
060371065202 2002 17 1 2.1822850
060371174043 3003 17 2 2.1822850
060372380006 6007 17 1 2.1822850
060372080001 1000 16 1 2.0539153
060372087202 2001 17 1 2.0539153
060371864041 1005 16 1 2.0539153
060372085022 2000 16 1 2.0539153
060372041102 2002 18 1 2.0539153
060372089041 1001 16 2 2.0539153
060372430002 2003 19 1 2.0539153
060372395012 2006 15 1 1.9255456
060371895002 2003 15 1 1.9255456
060371173013 3005 16 1 1.9255456
060372013021 1000 15 1 1.9255456
060371973001 1005 15 1 1.9255456
060372051201 1016 15 19 1.7971759
060371959031 1005 14 1 1.7971759
060371327004 4003 14 1 1.7971759
060372164011 1000 19 2 1.7971759
060372260012 2016 14 1 1.7971759
060372328001 1000 14 1 1.7971759
060372093001 1008 14 1 1.7971759
060372048101 1004 14 2 1.7971759
060372264203 3007 17 2 1.7971759
060372073012 2001 13 1 1.6688062
060371956004 4004 13 1 1.6688062
060372240202 2005 13 1 1.6688062
060371310101 1003 13 1 1.6688062
060371895002 2004 13 2 1.6688062
060372083022 2003 13 1 1.6688062
060372032001 1000 14 1 1.6688062
060372093001 1010 13 1 1.6688062
060372093001 1001 13 1 1.6688062
060371234201 1001 13 1 1.6688062
060372190101 1007 13 1 1.6688062
060372071031 1001 15 1 1.6688062
060371175101 1003 13 1 1.6688062
060372214021 1002 12 1 1.5404365
060372932021 1002 12 1 1.5404365
060372431002 2006 14 13 1.5404365
060372112021 1005 12 1 1.5404365
060371904021 1005 14 1 1.5404365
060372218201 1002 12 1 1.5404365
060372031003 3001 14 27 1.5404365
060372430004 4008 12 1 1.5404365
060371271042 2002 12 2 1.5404365
060371912011 1008 11 2 1.4120668
060372093002 2003 11 1 1.4120668
060371902011 1000 11 1 1.4120668
060371042031 1004 10 1 1.2836970
060372242002 2001 10 2 1.2836970
060371174042 2004 10 1 1.2836970
060371977001 1006 10 1 1.2836970
060372098202 2001 10 1 1.2836970
060372944101 1009 10 1 1.2836970
060372199011 1000 10 1 1.2836970
060371340021 1004 10 1 1.2836970
060372080002 2000 10 3 1.2836970
060371281022 2003 10 2 1.2836970
060372014011 1002 10 1 1.2836970
060371911101 1002 10 1 1.2836970
060372031003 3003 10 2 1.2836970
060372125011 1003 9 1 1.1553273
060371192013 3000 10 1 1.1553273
060372080001 1019 9 1 1.1553273
060371012102 2004 9 1 1.1553273
060372075021 1002 9 1 1.1553273
060372086102 2002 9 1 1.1553273
060372270101 1000 9 1 1.1553273
060371289103 3007 11 1 1.1553273
060371066042 2010 9 1 1.1553273
060372733001 1009 12 1 1.1553273
060372243201 1001 9 1 1.1553273
060372288001 1009 9 8 1.1553273
060372187021 1007 9 1 1.1553273
060371912031 1001 9 2 1.1553273
060371909022 2000 9 1 1.1553273
060371903011 1001 9 1 1.1553273
060372121022 2000 8 1 1.0269576
060372071021 1009 9 1 1.0269576
060372098102 2002 8 1 1.0269576
060371193411 1001 8 1 1.0269576
060371347101 1002 8 1 1.0269576
060372733001 1007 8 1 1.0269576
060372403003 3017 8 1 1.0269576
060372400102 2006 8 14 1.0269576
060372948301 1005 8 1 1.0269576
060372289001 1004 8 1 1.0269576
060372193003 3000 8 1 1.0269576
060372089041 1000 8 1 1.0269576
060371014001 1000 8 1 1.0269576
060372071021 1006 7 1 0.8985879
060372214021 1004 7 1 0.8985879
060372132012 2002 7 1 0.8985879
060372213021 1006 7 1 0.8985879
060372431001 1009 8 2 0.8985879
060372222001 1006 7 2 0.8985879
060371151041 1002 7 1 0.8985879
060372171001 1003 7 1 0.8985879
060371310102 2020 7 1 0.8985879
060372060501 1070 6 1 0.7702182
060372949001 1013 6 1 0.7702182
060372123051 1000 6 1 0.7702182
060371345201 1023 6 1 0.7702182
060371413031 1000 6 1 0.7702182
060372321203 3002 6 1 0.7702182
060371241021 1000 6 1 0.7702182
060372218102 2000 6 1 0.7702182
060372035003 3001 6 1 0.7702182
060371916201 1003 6 3 0.7702182
060372127011 1002 6 1 0.7702182
060372362041 1001 6 1 0.7702182
060372403002 2001 6 2 0.7702182
060371909021 1005 6 1 0.7702182
060372220022 2005 6 1 0.7702182
060371351021 1000 6 1 0.7702182
060371048212 2000 6 1 0.7702182
060372133201 1005 5 2 0.6418485
060372312201 1003 5 1 0.6418485
060371253103 3004 5 1 0.6418485
060372218101 1002 5 1 0.6418485
060371907001 1009 5 1 0.6418485
060372060321 1001 5 1 0.6418485
060371952011 1006 5 2 0.6418485
060372349011 1001 5 1 0.6418485
060372414001 1005 5 1 0.6418485
060372962202 2013 5 1 0.6418485
060371253202 2004 5 1 0.6418485
060371837022 2009 5 1 0.6418485
060372395021 1007 5 1 0.6418485
060372222001 1010 5 2 0.6418485
060372289001 1013 5 2 0.6418485
060372423003 3007 5 2 0.6418485
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060371974201 1000 5 1 0.6418485
060372091021 1001 5 3 0.6418485
060371282102 2006 5 1 0.6418485
060372218201 1000 5 1 0.6418485
060372215002 2002 5 1 0.6418485
060372031003 3002 5 37 0.6418485
060371288011 1000 5 1 0.6418485
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060372949001 1014 4 11 0.5134788
060372312201 1004 4 2 0.5134788
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060372317101 1001 4 1 0.5134788
060372060323 3009 4 1 0.5134788
060372962201 1004 4 3 0.5134788
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060371172021 1009 4 1 0.5134788
060371232031 1006 4 1 0.5134788
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060372911101 1000 4 1 0.5134788
060372190202 2000 4 1 0.5134788
060371991102 2000 4 1 0.5134788
060372031002 2000 4 13 0.5134788
060371031024 4005 4 2 0.5134788
060371043202 2007 3 2 0.3851091
060372384002 2001 3 1 0.3851091
060372410022 2010 3 1 0.3851091
060372197002 2006 3 1 0.3851091
060371864012 2014 3 1 0.3851091
060372283102 2006 3 1 0.3851091
060372060102 2006 3 1 0.3851091
060372327003 3013 3 1 0.3851091
060372427001 1003 3 2 0.3851091
060372381002 2007 3 1 0.3851091
060371174051 1003 3 2 0.3851091
060372163002 2007 3 1 0.3851091
060372264203 3005 3 1 0.3851091
060372264203 3003 3 2 0.3851091
060372080002 2006 3 1 0.3851091
060371132342 2018 3 1 0.3851091
060372037102 2001 3 2 0.3851091
060371924102 2000 3 1 0.3851091
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060372060501 1009 2 15 0.2567394
060372124102 2000 2 2 0.2567394
060371193102 2003 2 1 0.2567394
060372240102 2018 2 2 0.2567394
060372246001 1000 2 1 0.2567394
060372187012 2002 2 1 0.2567394
060372060321 1014 2 17 0.2567394
060372723021 1004 2 1 0.2567394
060372282101 1002 2 1 0.2567394
060372289002 2006 2 3 0.2567394
060372083021 1007 2 1 0.2567394
060372405001 1008 2 1 0.2567394
060372288001 1010 2 7 0.2567394
060371902011 1001 2 1 0.2567394
060371910001 1009 2 1 0.2567394
060372400102 2007 2 12 0.2567394
060372397012 2008 2 1 0.2567394
060372200005 5000 2 1 0.2567394
060372089042 2001 2 2 0.2567394
060372912103 3008 2 2 0.2567394
060371837012 2009 2 1 0.2567394
060372949001 1015 1 4 0.1283697
060372944102 2009 1 2 0.1283697
060371134011 1012 1 1 0.1283697
060372091031 1004 1 2 0.1283697
060372377202 2007 1 2 0.1283697
060371061122 2031 1 1 0.1283697
060371999002 2000 1 1 0.1283697
060372084021 1004 1 1 0.1283697
060372044201 1005 1 1 0.1283697
060371345221 1011 1 1 0.1283697
060372426003 3005 1 19 0.1283697
060371310101 1002 1 1 0.1283697
060371041051 1004 1 1 0.1283697
060372060323 3023 1 12 0.1283697
060372404011 1001 1 1 0.1283697
060372946102 2004 1 2 0.1283697
060372288001 1008 1 10 0.1283697
060371873002 2004 1 1 0.1283697
060372755004 4002 1 22 0.1283697
060372085012 2000 1 1 0.1283697
060372319001 1005 1 1 0.1283697
060371174043 3009 1 1 0.1283697
060372372013 3003 1 1 0.1283697
060372345023 3004 1 1 0.1283697
060371331001 1007 1 1 0.1283697
060371872001 1006 1 1 0.1283697
060372213042 2001 1 3 0.1283697
060371813001 1000 1 1 0.1283697
060372360001 1001 1 1 0.1283697

Maps

Predictions

Density Map

The map below aggregates all the predictions Los Angeles, Calif., received in our analysis window into a 2D grid. Each square of the grid represents an area approximately 500 ft. x 500 ft., the size of the PredPol prediction box. The color represents the number of predictions that occurred within the square. The more predictions, the darker the square.

Prediction Count Description
0 - 179 Least Predictions
179 - 358
358 - 536
536 - 714
714 - 893
893 - 1070 Most Predictions

Sources: Markup, Predpol

The grid drawn on this map provides an approximate aggregation of the prediction data. The actual prediction box in the reports provided to departments will vary from the ones shown above.

Choropleth

This map shows the predictions aggregated to the level of the Census block group. Aggregating prediction data to the geographic area of a Census block group introduces additional complexity to the analysis, and hence this map should be interpreted with some caution. See the limitations section of the methodology for more details.

Source: Markup, Predpol

Race and Ethnicity

Black

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

Latino

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

White

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

Household Income

Less than $45k

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

$75k - $100k

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

$125k - $150k

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

$200k and above

Source: 2018 five-year ACS.

Methods

We analyzed the distribution of PredPol predictions for Los Angeles, Calif. at the geographic level of a Census block group, which is a cluster of blocks with a population of between a few hundred to a few thousand people, generally. There are 2515 block groups in Los Angeles, Calif., the smallest block group had a population of approximately 0 and the largest had a population of approximately 11,235.

In Los Angeles, Calif., we analyzed 799,412 predictions and used there locations to determine the block groups that were targeted the most, the median and the least. This data sheet presents the breakdown of the racial groups and household income ranges of the people who lived in those block groups. We also present the breakdowns for Los Angeles, Calif. overall for comparison. The predictions we analyzed were between Feb 15, 2018 and Apr 15, 2020 , we received confirmation that Los Angeles, Calif. department used the software between Jan 01, 2011 and Apr 15, 2020.

For the race/ethnicity and income analyses, we merged 2018 five-Year American Community Survey data and prediction data and observed the makeup of block groups that were targeted above and below the median, those targeted the most and those targeted the least. For the sake of consistency in our analysis we only used demographic groups for which we had reliable population estimates for all the jurisdictions in our data set. These are:

  • Racial Groups
    • Black
    • Asian
    • Latino
    • White
  • Household Income
    • Less than $45K
    • Between $75K-$100K
    • Between $125K-$150K
    • Greater than $200K

Definitions

We used the Census’ “designated place” boundaries as the boundaries for most jurisdictions. For Sheriff’s departments we confirmed the boundaries with the department.

We defined the most-targeted block groups as those in Los Angeles, Calif. which encompassed the highest five percent of predictions. We defined the median-targeted block groups as the five percent around the median block group for predictions. And we defined the least-targeted block groups as those with the bottom five percent of predictions.

In some of the larger jurisdictions, more than five percent of block groups got zero predictions. In those cases, we chose the most populated block groups with no predictions for the five percent. Learn more about how we did this in our methodology.

We identified public housing through HUD’s online lookup tool available at https://resources.hud.gov

Data

The data used to generate this analysis can be found in our GitHub repository. It also contains the URLs for the rest of the data sheets from our analysis.